Researchers at North Carolina State University have predicted that the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will result in the formation of 12 to 15 named storms in the Atlantic basin. This prediction includes the potential formation of these storms across the Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Caribbean Sea.
According to Lian Xie, a professor of marine, earth, and atmospheric sciences at NC State, the predicted number of named storms aligns closely with recent averages. Historically, from 1951 to 2023, the average number of named storms is 11, while the more recent period from 1994 to 2024 sees an average of 15 named storms.
Of the 12 to 15 named storms forecasted, Xie notes that six to eight could reach hurricane strength. There is also a possibility of two to three becoming major hurricanes. Historical data shows that the average number of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin is typically six.
About the Gulf of Mexico, Xie’s data suggests that one to three named storms could form, with one to two potentially escalating into hurricanes, and possibly one becoming a major hurricane. These predictions also reflect the historical averages, which usually record three named storms and two hurricanes in the Gulf.
Xie’s prediction methodology comprehensively analyzes over a century of historical data, focusing on hurricane positions, intensity, weather patterns, and sea-surface temperatures to make projections about storm formation.
The forecast is a collaborative effort of NC State’s departments of marine, earth, and atmospheric sciences, and computer science. This year, Xia Sun, an adjunct assistant professor of marine, earth, and atmospheric sciences, leads the forecast team.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially spans from June 1 to November 30.
